Moving away from fossil fuels is urgent, inevitable, and yet entirely possible, according to a first-of-its-kind international roadmap produced by the government of Brazil. As the host of the previous year’s climate summit, COP30, the Brazilian presidency has set out a comprehensive, voluntary framework designed to guide nations through the complex transition away from coal, oil, and gas.

The newly released roadmap emphasizes that there is no universal, one-size-fits-all approach to energy transitions. Instead, it invites countries to independently diagnose their readiness to begin the process, map out their specific national circumstances, and then pursue tailored policy levers to drive meaningful climate action. According to the blueprint, these concentrated efforts should culminate by 2033—marking exactly a decade since the landmark COP28 climate summit in Dubai called on all nations to contribute to a global transition away from fossil fuels.

The release of the document comes at a critical juncture, arriving just a week before the COP31 climate summit opens in Antalya, Turkey, where the roadmap is expected to heavily influence international debates over energy policy, economic development, and global climate commitments.

Why Has Brazil Produced a Fossil-Fuel Roadmap?

Intense debates over the necessity of a global roadmap to phase down fossil fuels dominated proceedings at COP30, which was hosted in the Amazonian city of Belém. During the summit, a coalition of 85 countries pushed for a formal reference to a new fossil-fuel transition roadmap to be included in the conference’s official negotiated outcome. This push was seen as a vital next step following the conclusion of the first global stocktake of climate action at COP28 in 2023, which explicitly urged countries to transition away from fossil fuels in this critical decade.

However, a opposing block of nations resisted the inclusion of the roadmap in the final text. While initial reports claimed this opposition group comprised 84 countries, subsequent analysis by researchers revealed notable inconsistencies and errors on the informal tracking list, suggesting that the actual number of opposing nations was significantly smaller.

Following two weeks of fierce, often polarized negotiations, Brazil announced that the formal fossil-fuel roadmap would not be incorporated into the official COP30 negotiated outcome. Nevertheless, the Brazilian presidency resolved to develop the roadmap independently outside of the formal UN climate process. As structured, the initiative remains entirely voluntary, meaning countries are under no legal obligation to respond to its findings or adopt its specific metrics.

The development of the framework was heavily informed by foundational discussions earlier in the year, including a first-of-its-kind ministerial summit on transitioning away from fossil fuels held in Santa Marta, Colombia. Co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands in April, the Santa Marta talks brought together climate envoys and ministers for informal dialogues regarding the structural, financial, and political barriers they face in moving away from fossil-fuel dependency. In addition to the energy roadmap, Brazil also spearheaded a parallel roadmap focused on halting global deforestation.

What Does the Fossil-Fuel Roadmap Say?

The newly published roadmap confronts the reality that, following decades of delayed action, the international community is no longer capable of meeting its ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C without first experiencing a temporary temperature overshoot. At the same time, the document highlights that the broader global transition toward clean energy is already well underway, supported by policies and technologies that currently exist and are readily deployable on a mass scale.

Crucially, the roadmap stresses that shifting away from fossil fuels is as much a fundamental question of economic development as it is an environmental imperative, particularly for emerging markets and developing economies. To address this complexity, the blueprint introduces the "Belém readiness index," a voluntary self-assessment tool that allows individual countries to calculate their specific dependency on fossil fuels alongside their institutional and financial capacity to transition away from them.

COP30 CEO Ana Toni described this mechanism during a press briefing as the essential "diagnosis" stage of the roadmap, bypassing the illusion of a one-size-fits-all global prescription. Once countries identify their unique readiness profiles, the framework sorts them into four distinct policy archetypes, helping governments pinpoint the precise regulatory and economic levers needed to catalyze action.

The roadmap maps out a structured implementation timeline spanning three distinct phases. The first phase runs from the present day until 2028, coinciding with the conclusion of the second global stocktake of progress under the Paris Agreement at COP33. During this initial window, efforts are expected to focus heavily on establishing strong institutional frameworks and sending long-term market signals.

The second phase stretches from 2028 to 2030, a period that aligns with the submission deadline for the next generation of national climate pledges, known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs. This middle phase is designed to center on the physical transformation of national and regional energy systems.

The final phase covers the years 2031 through 2033, concluding exactly ten years after the historic COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. This final period is earmarked for aggressively scaling up the transition worldwide. COP30 leadership emphasized that every stage of the framework was engineered to be exceptionally pragmatic and user-friendly for national governments.

The strategy has drawn a largely positive reception from international civil society organizations and policy experts. Dr. Natalie Jones, a senior policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, noted that the roadmap delivers an important political signal proving that the phase-down of fossil fuels remains firmly anchored on the international agenda. She highlighted that it provides governments with practical guidance to plan transitions that respect national circumstances, reinforce energy security, and safeguard local livelihoods.

Similarly, Avantika Goswami, a climate policy expert at the Centre for Science and Environment in New Delhi, praised the initiative as a unique and consultative model of multilateralism. She noted that the analytical framework successfully captures the multifaceted nature of the transition, urging countries to utilize it to formulate pathways aligned with their historical responsibilities and current capacities.

Ploy Achakulwisut, a former UN adviser on fossil fuels, expressed deep admiration for the readiness index approach, writing that it creates a clear methodology for grouping countries with shared transition challenges. According to Achakulwisut, understanding these distinct exposure-capacity archetypes can foster more targeted international cooperation, helping global actors align climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building assistance with actual on-the-ground requirements.

How Will the Fossil-Fuel Roadmap Be Discussed at COP31?

The publication of Brazil’s fossil-fuel roadmap precedes the opening of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, by mere days. The co-presidents of COP31—Turkey and Australia—have outlined a broad suite of priorities for the upcoming summit, most notably a major target aimed at increasing the share of global final energy consumption met by electricity from nearly 24% in 2023 to 35% by 2035.

During the joint press briefing, COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago asserted that this newly proposed electrification target is entirely complementary to the overarching aims of the fossil-fuel roadmap. Nevertheless, diplomatic observers note that some negotiating parties perceive the strong emphasis on electrification by Turkey and Australia as a strategic effort to sidestep protracted, contentious debates reminiscent of the friction witnessed in Belém.

While both Corrêa do Lago and Toni remained cautious about predicting how the roadmap will be formally received or debated during the proceedings in Antalya, Toni expressed optimism that the presidency was "hoping for the best." Asked how Brazil expects the voluntary framework to be greeted by governments that actively opposed its inclusion in the formal COP30 text, Corrêa do Lago declined to single out specific nations, pointing instead to the enduring foundation of existing international agreements.

"Let’s remind ourselves we already have a consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels, agreed at COP28, and we already have the instruments," Corrêa do Lago stated.

As delegates gather in Turkey, policy analysts argue that the primary challenge for the international community will be translating political goodwill into tangible execution. Dr. Jones emphasized that governments should use COP31 to announce their own national fossil-fuel transition roadmaps and demonstrate how those plans will feed into broader domestic climate strategies. She added that the conference should formally acknowledge the global roadmap and establish a clear pathway for its findings to feed into the upcoming second global stocktake.

For vulnerable developing nations that rely heavily on fossil-fuel revenues for public budgets and infrastructure, experts stress that credible transition plans must be backed by robust international finance and technical support. Only through targeted economic diversification and sustained financial assistance can shared global commitments be transformed into lasting, practical progress.