An updated hurricane forecast map designed to make it easier for people to identify areas threatened by storms has achieved part of its goal, but new research reveals a concerning limitation. Even when individuals can successfully recognize where hurricane watches are in effect, they may not feel a heightened sense of personal risk or become more inclined to take vital safety precautions.
The study, conducted by researchers at Florida State University, examined whether recent changes to the National Hurricane Center forecast graphics genuinely improve public understanding of hurricane threats. The multidisciplinary research team involved faculty members from the School of Communication within the College of Communication and Information, as well as experts from the Department of Geography.
At the center of the evaluation was an experimental graphic developed by the National Hurricane Center in 2024. This updated format expands the traditional hurricane forecast cone to explicitly include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. Historically, the familiar cone graphic has placed a much heavier emphasis on coastal regions. While coastal areas face undeniable dangers, meteorologists and emergency managers have long recognized that severe and dangerous storm conditions can extend far inland, well away from the shoreline.
When the researchers evaluated the experimental format, the findings revealed mixed results. On the positive side, the revised graphic successfully helped people who lacked specialized weather knowledge to recognize inland areas that were under hurricane or tropical storm watches. However, despite this improved recognition, the graphic did not significantly influence how dangerous participants believed the storms would be, nor did it alter their intentions to take protective measures. Furthermore, participants showed no improvement in their ability to correctly identify areas covered by storm warnings.
The findings were recently published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society.
"The National Hurricane Center has made a number of thoughtful changes to improve how hurricane information is communicated," said Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, who served as the lead author of the study. "We had a simple question. Do those changes actually help people understand what the graphic is telling them about the risk they face?"
Why People Misunderstand Hurricane Forecast Maps
To investigate how the general public interprets hurricane forecasts, the research team designed a comprehensive survey targeting residents in the states of Florida and Georgia, regions frequently impacted by tropical weather systems. During the study, participants were shown either the conventional hurricane cone graphic or the newer experimental version that includes additional information regarding inland storm threats.
The data showed that people who viewed the revised map were indeed more successful at identifying specific locations that were currently under hurricane or tropical storm watches. However, that isolated improvement in recognizing watch areas did not translate into greater concern about potential danger, nor did it foster stronger intentions among residents to secure their properties or prepare evacuation plans.
Compounding the issue, the results highlighted a persistent and widespread misunderstanding surrounding the familiar hurricane "cone of uncertainty." Many participants continued to incorrectly interpret the physical width of the cone as an indication of a storm’s actual physical size, rather than understanding what the graphic is truly intended to communicate—the degree of uncertainty surrounding the storm’s projected track over time.
"For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm," Ray said. "Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake."
Why Better Hurricane Warnings May Not Be Enough
The National Hurricane Center introduced its expanded forecast graphic in 2024 to address a critical communication gap: helping people realize that hurricane dangers are not restricted solely to communities situated directly along the coast. Inland flooding, severe tornadoes, and destructive winds can threaten areas located well away from the ocean, making it essential for residents beyond traditional coastal evacuation zones to understand their potential exposure to severe weather.
By integrating inland hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings directly into the traditional forecast cone, the updated graphic provides a much more complete spatial picture of where dangerous environmental conditions could develop during a weather event.
Despite this added clarity, the study suggests that simply adding useful information to a forecast does not automatically make people more aware of their personal risk or more likely to respond appropriately. Human behavior and risk perception remain complex hurdles in emergency management.
The researchers were careful to emphasize that their findings do not call into question the quality of the National Hurricane Center’s weather predictions, which the academic team considers to be exceptionally accurate. Instead, the results underscore the persistent difficulty of presenting complex meteorological data in a format that everyday citizens can readily interpret and apply when making high-stakes safety decisions.
"Our question wasn’t whether the science is good," said co-author Patrick Merle, professor and director of the School of Communication at Florida State University. "The science is excellent. The question is how we communicate that science so people who aren’t meteorologists understand the risk they’re facing."
Merle added that if people find information credible but still do not understand it well enough to take protective action, then the communication process has fallen short. The ultimate goal, he noted, is to empower people with actionable information they can use to keep themselves and their families safe.
How to Better Understand Hurricane Risks
The findings point directly to the importance of looking beyond a single forecast image when preparing for an approaching hurricane. Although the cone can provide valuable, high-level information about a storm’s expected path, it cannot possibly communicate every unique hazard that a particular community might experience on the ground.
Based on these conclusions, the researchers recommend that residents use hurricane forecast graphics in conjunction with localized weather predictions and detailed information about potential local impacts. Understanding the specific threats facing a neighborhood, paired with clear guidance on the protective steps residents should consider, can provide a far more reliable foundation for decision-making during an emergency.
"Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story," Ray said. "Don’t rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. That gives you a fuller picture of what the storm could mean where you live and what to do next."
The study received financial support through an internal Florida State University SEED grant. The research was also informed by ongoing discussions with the National Hurricane Center, which supplied the experimental forecast graphics evaluated by the academic team. Bradford Johnson, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography at Florida State University, contributed to the project as a co-author.
