Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to decline slightly in 2026, offering a promising sign that the world’s transition to cleaner energy is beginning to make a measurable difference. According to the latest Global Carbon Budget from the Global Carbon Project, fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to fall by 0.4%, partly because of growing solar and wind power generation and disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.
The report estimates that fossil fuel emissions will total 38.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2026. Oil emissions alone are expected to drop by 1.9%, largely reflecting a temporary energy shock associated with the conflict.
Clean energy is also playing an increasingly important role in reshaping the global energy landscape. Although worldwide energy consumption continues to grow year over year, solar power, wind power, and electric vehicles are now meeting roughly two-thirds of that additional demand. Even so, researchers caution that the transition is not happening quickly enough to guarantee a lasting reduction in fossil fuel emissions, leaving the long-term trajectory of global climate mitigation hanging in the balance.
Fossil Fuel Emissions Fall, but Total CO2 Keeps Rising
Despite the projected decline in fossil fuel emissions, the overall picture remains troubling when accounting for all sources of atmospheric carbon. When emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation and agricultural expansion, are included in the calculations, total global CO2 emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion metric tons in 2025.
That ongoing increase highlights how progress achieved through cleaner energy and improved industrial efficiency can be undermined by continued forest loss and other disruptive changes to the natural landscape.
The report also delivers a stark warning regarding the world’s remaining carbon budget, which represents the total amount of CO2 that can be emitted before global warming reaches the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Researchers estimate that just 150 billion metric tons of the carbon budget remain. At current emission rates, this remaining allowance will be exhausted in less than four years.
As carbon dioxide continues accumulating in the atmosphere unchecked, the risks and damaging consequences of climate change are becoming progressively more severe across every continent.
Natural Carbon Sinks Face New Climate Pressures
Beyond tracking direct human-caused emissions, the researchers closely examined the planet’s natural carbon sinks, which include the absorption of CO2 by land ecosystems and the world’s oceans. These natural systems play a vital role in limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide by taking up a significant portion of what human activities release each year.
The amount of carbon absorbed by land ecosystems has recovered to earlier levels after weakening substantially during the intense 2023-2024 El Nino weather pattern. However, scientists expect the powerful 2026 El Nino to significantly influence carbon absorption capabilities in the coming year, introducing new variables into global climate models.
The comprehensive research brought together prominent experts from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia, the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, the Alfred-Wegener-Institut, and more than 90 additional scientific institutions worldwide.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who directs the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter and led the research effort, emphasized that a temporary reduction in emissions is far from sufficient to solve the climate crisis.
"A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," Professor Friedlingstein noted.
"The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline."
Clean Energy Could Bring a Historic Turning Point
Despite the myriad challenges facing international climate policy, researchers see growing empirical evidence that renewable energy and electric transportation are beginning to alter the long-term trajectory of global emissions.
Professor Corinne Le Quere, a Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, pointed to the expanding influence of clean technologies, particularly the massive scale-up taking place in China.
"Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions," Professor Le Quere said. "Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years."
However, a single year of falling emissions does not necessarily mean the world has reached a lasting peak. Glen Peters, a Research Professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, stressed the vital importance of structural changes that permanently reduce societal reliance on fossil fuels.
"A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change," Peters explained. "Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles is pushing emissions down in dozens of countries and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions."
Researchers also emphasize that reducing ongoing emissions alone will not be enough to stabilize the climate. Removing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere must become a much larger and more active part of global climate strategies.
Professor Julia Pongratz of Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich’s Department of Geography explained the magnitude of the challenge:
"Alongside reducing emissions, we need to scale up CO2 removal to reach greenhouse gas neutrality. Afforestation and reforestation already remove substantial amounts of CO2, but these gains are still more than offset by emissions from deforestation, and novel carbon removal remains very limited. We need to act on all these fronts now."
Carbon Emissions in China, the US, India, and Europe
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget reveals significant differences in how emissions are changing across the world’s major economic powers.
China, which accounts for approximately 32% of the world’s total fossil fuel emissions, is expected to record a 0.9% reduction in 2026 after two consecutive years of relatively slow emissions growth. A substantial decline in domestic oil emissions is helping drive the decrease, although emissions from coal are projected to rise slightly by 0.3%.
At the same time, China continues to rapidly expand electricity generation from renewable sources. The country leads the world in deploying clean technologies and expanding carbon absorption through ambitious reforestation initiatives. About half of the emissions avoided globally through renewable energy and electric vehicles can be directly attributed to China. It also maintains the largest carbon uptake from reforestation and afforestation activities.
The United States is projected to reduce its emissions by 1.3%, primarily because of lower domestic coal use. By comparison, U.S. coal emissions had increased in the previous year as elevated natural gas prices and cold weather encouraged a temporary return to greater coal reliance.
India is moving in a markedly different direction. Its fossil fuel emissions are expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, exceeding its average annual growth rate of 3.5% observed over the past decade.
Elsewhere, the European Union is projected to cut its emissions by 1.5%, while Japan is expected to record a 1% reduction in its overall carbon footprint.
Taken together, countries outside these major economies are forecast to reduce their collective emissions by 0.7%. Much of that decrease stems from lower oil consumption, likely reflecting higher market prices and ongoing restrictions on global energy supplies.
Oil Emissions Decline as Coal Continues to Rise
The report also provides a detailed breakdown of projected emissions stemming from individual fossil fuel sources.
Oil is expected to experience the largest reduction, with emissions falling by 1.9% in 2026. Natural gas emissions are projected to decrease by a modest 0.3%, while coal emissions are expected to increase by 0.6% globally.
International transportation is also contributing to the overall decline in fossil fuel use. Emissions from international aviation and international shipping are each forecast to fall by 1%. Reduced aviation activity and routing adjustments in the Middle East are partly responsible for the decrease in global air travel emissions.
Although these developments help slow the growth of fossil fuel emissions, the report indicates that much of the progress remains highly vulnerable to shifting economic conditions and geopolitical instability.
Deforestation Threatens Global Climate Progress
One of the report’s most concerning findings involves carbon emissions originating from changes in land use and forestry practices.
Although emissions from land-use change have generally declined over the course of the past decade, they are expected to increase to 5.1 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2026.
This projected rise is directly linked to increased peat fires, which are almost entirely ignited by human activities, alongside the ongoing degradation of tropical forests in Southeast Asia. Unusually drier conditions associated with the developing El Nino weather pattern have contributed significantly to these land-based problems.
Even with this latest increase, the long-term growth of total global emissions has slowed considerably. Over the past decade, combined emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change increased by an average of just 0.3% annually, compared with an average annual increase of 1.7% during the preceding decade.
Permanent deforestation remains a major, persistent source of carbon dioxide. Between 2016 and 2025, permanent forest loss released approximately 3.8 billion metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. While reforestation and the establishment of new forests remove substantial amounts of carbon, these restorative activities currently offset only about half of the emissions associated with permanent deforestation worldwide.
China, the 27 member states of the European Union, and the United States together account for the largest carbon removals achieved through reforestation and afforestation, absorbing approximately 0.8 billion metric tons of CO2 annually.
Brazil, Russia, and Indonesia also absorb considerable carbon through forest growth and natural restoration. However, in each of those nations, emissions resulting from ongoing deforestation continue to outweigh the ecological benefits of forest recovery.
Emerging technologies designed to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or through novel industrial approaches are currently making only a tiny contribution to global mitigation. At their present scale, these novel methods compensate for less than 30 minutes of annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions.
Meanwhile, the average atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is projected to reach 427.7 parts per million in 2026, representing a level approximately 54% higher than the global baseline recorded before the Industrial Revolution.
More Countries Are Growing Their Economies While Cutting Emissions
A separate analysis conducted by the same research team, currently in press in another peer-reviewed journal, offers additional evidence that the rapid expansion of clean energy is fundamentally altering the traditional relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions.
As global energy demand increases year after year, the deployment of solar power, wind power, and electric vehicles prevents a substantial portion of that additional consumption from translating into new fossil fuel emissions.
Looking ahead through the end of 2028, researchers estimate that expanding clean technologies will successfully offset between 64% and 79% of the emissions that would otherwise result from growing global energy demand.
Another encouraging macroeconomic trend is the increasing number of countries successfully reducing their carbon emissions while their national economies continue to expand.
According to the analysis, 59 distinct countries recorded lower emissions in 2025 than they did in 2019, prior to the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as their gross domestic product grew over the same period.
These economic and environmental benefits are not limited to countries where emissions have already begun declining. Between 2019 and 2025, every major world region experienced slower overall emissions growth, including heavy-emitting nations like China, India, and other emerging economies where total emissions have continued to rise.
Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles Are Reshaping Emissions
Electric vehicles are making an increasingly important contribution to reducing transport-related emissions, although their overall global impact is still constrained by the time required to naturally replace the existing fleet of gasoline and diesel vehicles.
In 2025, approximately 10% of the global car fleet was electrified, or 6% when excluding standard hybrids. As more conventional combustion vehicles reach the end of their lifespans and are replaced, electric transportation is expected to play a vastly expanded role in reducing global fossil fuel consumption.
Solar and wind power are already producing much more substantial and immediate benefits across the electricity sector.
In 2010, renewable energy sources prevented an estimated 0.28 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions globally. By 2025, that figure had climbed dramatically to 4.1 billion metric tons, and it is projected to reach 4.6 billion metric tons in 2026.
This sharp increase demonstrates how quickly cleaner electricity generation is scaling up and how much additional atmospheric pollution would be produced without it.
The researchers believe that continued political and financial support for these technologies could bring the world to a critical historic milestone sooner than many observers might expect.
"If further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported through time, a sustained peak and decline in global CO2 emissions could be a few years away," the researchers concluded.
The Global Carbon Budget is compiled annually by an international collaboration of more than 140 scientists. It provides a transparent, rigorous assessment of global carbon emissions using established scientific methodologies and undergoes thorough peer review.
The 2026 edition, marking the 21st annual report produced by the initiative, is scheduled for publication as a preprint in Earth System Science Data on November 10, with a final peer-reviewed version to follow.
