Rising transportation expenses have become the primary engine of inflation in the United States, accounting for more than 35% of overall price increases as of September 2026, according to data released by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The consumer price index for transportation—which tracks the average cost of getting around across all urban centers nationwide—surged 7.9% in September compared to the same month in the previous year on an unadjusted basis.
The widespread escalation touches nearly every facet of mobility, from fueling a personal vehicle and purchasing a new car to riding public transit and booking commercial flights. Experts note that these compounding expenses are fundamentally altering how Americans live, work, and move through their daily routines.
“Rising transportation costs can change how, when, and where people travel, even when they don’t stop driving altogether,” Gary Hallgren, president of transportation analytics firm Arity, said in a written response to Smart Cities Dive. “People may reconsider where they go, combine trips, or make certain trips less frequently.”
At the heart of the transportation crunch are dramatic increases in fuel prices. The national average price for gasoline rose 7.3% in September over the prior month and a staggering 37.6% over the same period last year, according to BTS figures. Analysts point out that these energy spikes are rippling far beyond the gas pump.
“High fuel prices are driving overall inflation and squeezing household budgets and increasing the cost of everyday goods and services,” Yagiz Sullu, founder and lead analyst for Sullu Strategic Advisory, told Smart Cities Dive.
The situation is even more pronounced for diesel fuel, which jumped 15.2% month-over-month in September and soared 67.8% compared to the same month a year prior. Because diesel powers heavy-duty freight trucks, agricultural machinery, and commercial distribution networks, its volatility has a direct and immediate impact on the broader retail economy.
“Larger movements in the price of diesel [are] starting to show up in the price of consumer goods,” Babson College Assistant Professor of Finance Luke Stein told Smart Cities Dive, explaining that diesel fuel directly influences the operating costs of truck transportation, agricultural equipment, and essential farming fertilizers.
The pressure on commercial travel and private vehicle ownership is equally severe. Jet fuel prices increased by 84% in August compared to the same period in the previous year, contributing to higher domestic airline fares. Concurrently, the cost of vehicle maintenance and repair has climbed steadily, while buying a new car remains a major financial hurdle. According to data from Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price for a new vehicle now exceeds $50,000.
These economic pressures are changing everyday consumer behavior in measurable ways. Hallgren noted that proprietary data from Arity reveals a direct correlation between fuel costs and consumer mobility: every 1% increase in weekly gas prices led to a noticeable reduction in trips to grocery stores, restaurants, and other retail locations across nine states during a spring observation period from March 2 through April 20.
As private vehicle operation becomes increasingly expensive, public transit systems across the country are also feeling the financial strain, passing increased operational costs down to commuters through higher fares.
The New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority raised its subway and bus fares by 10 cents in January, alongside ticket price increases of up to 8% on its commuter rail lines. In Southern California, the North County Transit District and San Diego’s Metropolitan Transit System implemented fare increases on October 1. Similar measures are on the horizon elsewhere, with transit fares in Miami-Dade County scheduled to rise in January, and the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority proposing an 11% fare hike for the coming year.
“Transit agencies face increasing operating costs, and we will see this effect more on households that are low to middle income and are more dependent on affordable public transportation,” Sullu said.
Despite the rising cost of tickets, public transportation advocates argue that mass transit remains a vital financial buffer for households struggling with inflation. A report released by the American Public Transportation Association highlights that households can save anywhere from $12,000 to more than $18,000 a year by choosing public transportation over personal vehicle ownership, depending on the metropolitan area.
“When you add up gas, insurance, repairs, and parking, the savings can be significant,” APTA President and CEO Paul Skoutelas said in a statement.
The cumulative weight of inflation is also casting a shadow over upcoming seasonal travel plans. A recent survey conducted by PwC indicates that holiday travelers may budget more tightly and actively avoid air travel this year. However, market research suggests that the pain is not being distributed equally across income brackets.
Data from travel research firm Future Partners shows that higher-income households will continue to spend relatively freely on travel, while lower-income consumers pull back sharply. Individuals with annual household incomes of $200,000 or more are projected to spend roughly 6.8 times more on travel than those with household incomes under $49,000.
As cities, transit authorities, and economists grapple with these shifting dynamics, industry leaders emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach to understanding urban mobility.
“For cities, that’s why I think it’s important to look at these things together,” Hallgren said. “Price is one data point. Transit is another. Driving behavior is another. When you start connecting those signals, you get a much clearer picture of how people are moving and how that could change.”
