The United Kingdom has successfully avoided the need for natural gas imports worth an estimated £5.9bn since the onset of the geopolitical crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, figures from a new Carbon Brief analysis reveal. Driven by record-breaking generation levels from wind and solar power installations across the country, the clean-energy surge has cushioned the British energy grid against soaring international fossil fuel prices reminiscent of the turbulence seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
While global wholesale gas markets have experienced severe upward pressure, the UK has simultaneously ramped up its domestic generation from renewable sources, with wind and solar output jumping by 14% year-on-year. This unprecedented expansion in clean power generation has directly reduced the nation’s reliance on gas-fired power stations. According to Carbon Brief’s data, gas-for-electricity generation is down by nearly 10% in 2026 to date compared to the same period in previous years.
Cumulatively, wind and solar technologies have accounted for a record 41% share of the UK’s total electricity needs so far in 2026. By comparison, gas-fired generation has accounted for roughly 25% of the power mix over the same timeframe. The substantial shift underscores a structural evolution in the country’s energy grid, proving crucial as external shocks continue to destabilize traditional fossil fuel supply chains.
The dramatic savings of £5.9bn have accumulated since the outbreak of conflict involving the United States and Iran in February 2026. Without this homegrown clean electricity, the UK would have been forced to procure the equivalent of more than 100 additional tanker deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on hyper-competitive global markets.
For September 2026 alone, the avoided gas import bill stands at roughly £1.3bn, propelled by record-setting wind and solar output totaling nearly 10 terawatt hours (TWh), coupled with surging market prices. This latest update builds upon previous analyses published by Carbon Brief earlier in the spring, which tracked early financial savings as the Middle East conflict began to disrupt energy flows.
The ongoing strain on the UK’s energy procurement budget is heavily tied to lingering volatility in the wholesale markets. Wholesale gas prices in the UK have remained persistently elevated ever since Russia severed its pipeline supplies to continental Europe in the wake of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Between 2023 and the beginning of 2026, UK gas prices hovered at an average of 90p per therm—roughly triple the baseline prices seen in 2019 before the combined shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. However, the outbreak of war in the Middle East in March pushed prices even higher, averaging 134p per therm, or nearly four times pre-crisis 2019 levels.
As autumn progresses into September 2026, wholesale gas prices have climbed further still, averaging 189p per therm. This marks the highest point for European and UK gas markers since the height of the global energy crisis four years ago.
Market analysts point to multiple converging pressures driving the current price spike. With winter approaching, anticipated increases in domestic heating demand are colliding with an enduring lack of resolution to the Hormuz crisis. Simultaneously, European natural gas storage inventories remain low relative to historical averages. Consequently, European nations find themselves locked in a fierce international competition with Asian buyers to secure the scarce LNG cargoes necessary to maintain adequate heating reserves through the colder months.
In the UK, these soaring wholesale gas prices are inevitably passing through to consumer utility bills, regulated by Ofgem’s consumer price cap. However, the impact is starkly asymmetrical between heating and electricity, highlighting the growing divergence between the two energy vectors.
Starting on October 1, typical household gas bills are projected to rise by 33% compared to April levels—equating to an extra £200 per year for an average household, according to data from the independent think tank Nesta. Conversely, household electricity bills have experienced a modest increase of only 4%, buffered directly by the expanding output of affordable, home-grown clean energy sources.
Andrew Sissons, director for sustainable future at Nesta, highlighted the shifting market dynamics in a recent social media commentary, noting that the long-standing direct link between electricity and gas wholesale pricing has begun to break down.
The UK and other major fossil-fuel importing economies are simultaneously grappling with inflated prices across the entire spectrum of hydrocarbons, including oil, diesel, and other refined fuels. Reports indicate that the European Union has had to absorb an estimated €100bn in extra costs for fossil fuel imports since the onset of the current geopolitical crisis. Independent research from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that these inflated import bills have fallen with particular severity on low- and middle-income countries.
Domestically in the UK, pump prices for diesel have climbed to record highs of around £2 per litre. In sharp contrast, recent energy analyses demonstrate that operating electric vehicles remains significantly cheaper—up to nine times more cost-effective to drive per mile than petrol or diesel equivalents.
Addressing delegates at the Labour Party conference, Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh emphasized that stubborn household energy bills are primarily a symptom of the UK’s historical exposure to volatile global fossil fuel markets.
Echoing these themes during his own conference address, Prime Minister Andy Burnham pointed to the rapid acceleration of renewable energy infrastructure as a vital shield protecting consumers from the worst excesses of international gas market shocks.
"We are already taking more control of our electricity prices with a massive expansion of home-grown renewables and nuclear," Burnham told the conference audience. He added that he had instructed the Energy Secretary to accelerate efforts to break the direct pricing link between domestic electricity bills and the international gas market in order to bring down costs for families.
