Wildfires sweeping across vast expanses of land in Indonesia are tracking on a dangerous trajectory, putting the nation on course to produce carbon emissions on a par with its most intense fire season of the century. As the dry season deepens under the heavy influence of a severe climate phenomenon, scientists and environmental researchers are closely monitoring the unfolding crisis, raising urgent questions about the resilience of the landscape and the lasting impact of regional conservation policies.
According to data compiled by the Global Fire Emissions Database, fires across Indonesia had already generated 76 million tonnes of carbon (MtC) for the year as of September 7, 2026. This stark figure places the current year on an identical trajectory to 2015, a catastrophic fire season that saw blazes scorch 2.6 million hectares of land nationwide and release a staggering total of 333MtC into the atmosphere.
Dr. Guido van der Werf, a researcher at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, notes that the ongoing fires in Indonesia are tracking closely toward the levels recorded eleven years ago. While some sectors of the country are experiencing varying conditions, other areas—most notably the eastern province of Papua—are witnessing unprecedented levels of destruction, burning at intensities never before recorded in modern observation.
Indonesia is no stranger to massive, emissions-heavy fire seasons driven by prolonged droughts and human-altered landscapes. Historical research has estimated that the landmark 1997 fire season generated carbon emissions equivalent to anywhere between 13% and 40% of all global fossil-fuel emissions for that single year. Similarly, scientific analyses examining the 2015 fires across Southeast Asia, which primarily impacted Indonesia, revealed that the resulting carbon dioxide emissions surpassed the total annual fossil-fuel emissions of the entire European Union for that year. Beyond the immediate atmospheric consequences, the severe haze generated by these intense fire seasons has historically been linked to more than 100,000 premature deaths across the broader region, underscoring a profound public health crisis alongside the environmental damage.
The El Niño Influence
A primary driver behind the current crisis is the recurrence of El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon linked to shifting ocean temperatures in the Pacific. Historically, El Niño events have periodically driven up regional temperatures and drastically dried out land across Indonesia, creating ideal environmental preconditions for fires so immense that their signature imprints clearly register on global emissions monitoring systems.
This year’s El Niño event, which officially developed in June and is projected by climate forecasters to persist well into 2027, is currently shaping up to be one of the most intense on record. Dr. Mark Parrington, a senior scientist from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, explains the seasonal context, noting that the typical dry season in Indonesia spans from August through October and November. While routine fires are a familiar occurrence during these dry months, Parrington emphasizes that the sheer scale observed this year far exceeds typical seasonal averages, outpacing even most previous El Niño years.
Dr. Nisa Novita, strategic lead for peatland at the Indonesian environmental NGO Yayasan Konservasi Alam Nusantara, points out that while El Niño does not directly spark the majority of these fires, it serves as a powerful amplifier. By fostering significantly hotter and drier conditions, the climate pattern makes vegetation far easier to ignite, allows fires to spread at accelerated speeds, and makes them vastly more difficult for local authorities and firefighters to control.
Scientific studies have consistently demonstrated that fires in Indonesia frequently break out in regions where significant land clearance and peatland drainage have taken place to make way for agriculture and intensive palm oil plantations. These human-led alterations transform naturally damp ecosystems into parched, highly flammable landscapes that are acutely vulnerable during periods of severe drought.
Van der Werf notes that the ultimate magnitude of the 2026 fires—and whether they will ultimately surpass the grim records set in 2015—will depend heavily on the duration of the current El Niño event, alongside the practical effectiveness of recent peatland conservation and restoration initiatives implemented across the archipelago.
Peatlands as Subterranean Fuel
The exceptional carbon intensity of Indonesian wildfires stems largely from the country’s vast tropical peatland ecosystems. Novita explains the unique mechanical danger these landscapes pose when disrupted. When peatlands are degraded and drained through the development of artificial drainage canals for agricultural expansion, the local water table drops significantly. This process leaves the underlying peat dry and exceptionally flammable, particularly during extended dry seasons or intense El Niño episodes.
Unlike fires that primarily consume surface vegetation in dry ecosystems, peat fires are capable of smoldering deeply underground for weeks or months. In these conditions, the soil itself transforms into an available and nearly inexhaustible fuel source, releasing immense quantities of carbon stored over millennia while generating dense, suffocating smoke that resists standard firefighting interventions.
In the wake of past catastrophic fire seasons, Indonesia has introduced various policy measures aimed at strengthening peatland protection. Following the widespread devastation of the 1997-1998 fires, the government established institutions and regulatory frameworks designed to curb deforestation and safeguard fragile ecosystems. These efforts included the implementation of a formal moratorium blocking new licenses to convert primary forests and peatlands into industrial plantations and commercial logging concessions.
Following the severe fires of 2015, the government established an official peatland restoration agency, which was later granted an expanded mandate in 2021 to include mangrove restoration. Although this dedicated agency was dissolved last year, its legacy of intervention has sparked an ongoing debate among environmental experts regarding long-term preparedness. Novita acknowledges that the country has learned valuable lessons and improved its operational frameworks over the decades, but raises a critical concern over whether these measures are sufficient to protect against the compounded risks of degraded peatlands meeting severe climate anomalies.
Extensive peatland restoration efforts undertaken in recent years have previously been credited with successfully dampening the number and severity of fires during the 2019 El Niño event. However, analyzing the current 2026 data, Van der Werf suggests it remains difficult to gauge precisely how effective these recent conservation efforts have been in mitigating the spread of the current blazes.
While certain areas, such as Sumatra, have experienced a relatively quiet fire season—potentially signaling the localized success of protective regulations and restoration work—other parts of the country tell a drastically different story. Regions like Papua, alongside neighboring Papua New Guinea, are emerging as new frontiers of vulnerability, experiencing extensive fire activity as land use patterns mirror the intensive development phases that Sumatra underwent two decades ago. As the dry season progresses and the heavy influence of El Niño continues to challenge local defenses, scientists and environmental advocates remain watchful as the full scale of the 2026 emissions continues to unfold.
