An updated hurricane forecast map designed to make it easier for the public to identify areas threatened by severe weather is achieving its primary visual goal, but new research reveals a concerning limitation in how people process that information. Even when individuals can accurately recognize where hurricane watches are in effect across inland communities, the graphics may not necessarily make them feel more at risk or drive them to take proactive safety precautions.
Researchers at Florida State University recently examined whether specific changes to the National Hurricane Center forecast graphics genuinely improve public understanding of hurricane threats. The comprehensive study brought together faculty members from the School of Communication within the College of Communication and Information, as well as experts from the Department of Geography, highlighting a multidisciplinary approach to solving a persistent public safety challenge.
The research team evaluated an experimental graphic that expands the traditional, well-known hurricane forecast cone. This updated version incorporates tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings specifically for inland areas. Historically, the familiar cone has placed a much heavier visual emphasis on coastal regions. However, meteorological data consistently demonstrates that dangerous storm conditions, torrential rainfall, destructive winds, and isolated tornadoes can extend far from the shoreline and deeply into the interior of a region.
Assessing the Revised Graphic
When the researchers evaluated the public’s response to the experimental format, the findings revealed mixed results. Although the revised graphic successfully helped people without specialized weather knowledge recognize inland areas placed under hurricane or tropical storm watches, it failed to significantly influence how dangerous they believed the storms would be. Furthermore, the updated format did not alter whether participants intended to take protective measures to safeguard their homes and families. Interestingly, the study also found no notable improvement in how well participants could identify specific areas covered by storm warnings.
The updated format at the center of the study was originally developed by the National Hurricane Center in 2024. The academic findings resulting from the Florida State University evaluation were subsequently published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society, bringing the communication challenge to the attention of both meteorologists and emergency management professionals.
"The National Hurricane Center has made a number of thoughtful changes to improve how hurricane information is communicated," said Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, who served as the lead author of the study. "We had a simple question. Do those changes actually help people understand what the graphic is telling them about the risk they face?"
To investigate how the general public interprets these vital hurricane forecasts, the research team designed a survey targeting residents in Florida and Georgia—states frequently impacted by tropical weather systems. During the study, participants were shown either the conventional hurricane cone graphic or the newer experimental version that includes additional, detailed information regarding inland storm threats.
While individuals who viewed the revised map demonstrated greater success at identifying locations under active hurricane or tropical storm watches, that cognitive improvement in recognition did not translate into a heightened sense of personal concern about potential danger, nor did it spark stronger intentions to implement necessary safety precautions.
Persistent Misunderstandings of the Cone of Uncertainty
Beyond evaluating the new inland data, the study’s results highlighted a persistent, long-standing misunderstanding surrounding the familiar hurricane "cone of uncertainty." Many members of the public continue to incorrectly interpret the physical width of the cone on their screens as an indication of a storm’s actual physical size, rather than understanding what the graphic is technically intended to communicate—the statistical uncertainty inherent in the storm’s projected track over time.
"For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm," Ray said. "Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake."
The National Hurricane Center introduced its expanded forecast graphic in 2024 specifically to help communities recognize that hurricane dangers are never limited strictly to coastal zones. Flooding, severe inland wind damage, and secondary weather hazards can threaten areas well beyond the immediate beaches, making it critically important for residents living far past coastal evacuation zones to thoroughly understand their potential exposure to heavy weather.
By adding inland hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings directly into the traditional forecast cone framework, the updated graphic provides a much more complete, comprehensive picture of where dangerous meteorological conditions could potentially develop as a storm makes landfall and moves inland.
The Gap Between Information and Action
Despite the expanded scope of the data presented, the study suggests that simply adding useful information to a forecast does not automatically translate to heightened public awareness of personal risk, nor does it make individuals inherently more likely to respond appropriately with emergency preparations.
The researchers strongly stressed that their findings do not call into question the overarching quality or precision of the National Hurricane Center’s weather predictions, which the academic team considers to be exceptionally accurate. Instead, the results underscore the profound difficulty of presenting complex meteorological data in a format that ordinary citizens can readily interpret, synthesize, and act upon when making high-stakes safety decisions under pressure.
"Our question wasn’t whether the science is good," said co-author Patrick Merle, a professor and director of the School of Communication at Florida State University. "The science is excellent. The question is how we communicate that science so people who aren’t meteorologists understand the risk they’re facing. If people find information credible but still don’t understand it well enough to take protective action, then communication has fallen short. The goal is to empower people with information they can use to stay safe."
The research findings point directly to the importance of looking far beyond a single forecast image when preparing for an approaching hurricane. Although the cone provides undeniably valuable information regarding a storm’s expected trajectory, it cannot possibly communicate every nuanced hazard that a specific neighborhood or community might experience on the ground.
To bridge this gap, the researchers recommend that residents utilize hurricane forecast graphics in conjunction with localized weather predictions and detailed descriptions of potential local impacts. Understanding the specific threats unique to a given area, alongside the practical protective steps residents should consider, can provide a much more reliable and actionable basis for emergency decision-making.
"Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story," Ray said. "Don’t rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. That gives you a fuller picture of what the storm could mean where you live and what to do next."
The study received financial backing through an internal Florida State University SEED grant. The academic research was also informed by ongoing discussions with the National Hurricane Center, which supplied the experimental forecast graphics that were evaluated by the team. Bradford Johnson, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography at Florida State University, contributed to the project as a co-author.
