An updated hurricane forecast map designed to make it easier for people to identify areas threatened by severe storms has achieved mixed results, according to new research. While the revised graphic successfully helps the public recognize inland regions under hurricane watches, it fails to make residents feel more at risk or significantly increase their inclination to take necessary safety precautions.
The study, conducted by researchers at Florida State University, evaluated whether recent changes implemented by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) genuinely improve public understanding of hurricane threats. The interdisciplinary research team included faculty members from the School of Communication within the College of Communication and Information, as well as the Department of Geography.
At the center of the evaluation was an experimental graphic developed by the NHC in 2024. This updated format expands the traditional, highly familiar hurricane forecast cone to incorporate tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings specifically for inland areas. Historically, the standard forecast cone has placed a much greater visual emphasis on coastal regions, potentially leaving inland communities unaware that dangerous, destructive storm conditions can extend far beyond the shoreline.
When the researchers evaluated the public’s response to the new format, the findings revealed a complex picture. Although the revised graphic successfully helped individuals without specialized weather knowledge recognize inland areas placed under hurricane or tropical storm watches, it did not significantly influence how dangerous participants believed the approaching storms would be. Furthermore, the updated design failed to alter whether residents intended to take protective measures, and participants showed no measurable improvement in correctly identifying areas covered by storm warnings.
The findings were recently published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society.
"The National Hurricane Center has made a number of thoughtful changes to improve how hurricane information is communicated," said Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, the lead author of the study. "We had a simple question: Do those changes actually help people understand what the graphic is telling them about the risk they face?"
Why People Misunderstand Hurricane Forecast Maps
To investigate how the public interprets official hurricane forecasts, the research team designed a survey targeting residents of Florida and Georgia, two states frequently impacted by tropical weather systems. During the study, participants were shown either the conventional hurricane cone graphic or the newer experimental version that features additional data regarding inland storm threats.
While individuals who viewed the revised map demonstrated greater success in identifying locations under hurricane or tropical storm watches, that localized improvement in recognition did not translate into a heightened sense of concern regarding potential danger. Consequently, stronger intentions to secure property, monitor updates, or enact safety precautions did not materialize among that group.
Beyond the challenges of communicating inland risks, the study’s results highlighted a persistent, widespread misunderstanding surrounding the familiar hurricane "cone of uncertainty." Many people continue to incorrectly interpret the physical width of the cone as an indicator of a storm’s sheer geographical size, rather than understanding what the graphic is actually intended to communicate—which is simply the statistical uncertainty associated with the storm’s projected track over time.
"For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm," Ray noted. "Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake."
Why Better Hurricane Warnings May Not Be Enough
The NHC introduced its expanded forecast graphic in 2024 to address a critical communication gap: helping the public recognize that hurricane dangers are by no means restricted to communities directly sitting on the coastline. Severe inland hazards, including widespread flooding, destructive tornadoes, and damaging winds, frequently threaten areas well inland, making it vital for residents situated far beyond traditional coastal evacuation zones to understand their potential exposure to these perils.
By integrating inland hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings directly into the traditional forecast cone, the updated graphic was designed to provide a more comprehensive picture of where dangerous meteorological conditions could eventually develop.
However, the Florida State University study suggests that simply adding useful, scientifically accurate information to a forecast does not automatically make individuals more aware of their own personal risk, nor does it make them inherently more likely to respond appropriately to impending danger.
The researchers were careful to emphasize that their findings do not call into question the exceptional quality and accuracy of the NHC’s weather predictions, which the academic team regards as highly precise. Instead, the results underscore the profound difficulty of presenting complex meteorological information in a format that the general public can readily interpret, synthesize, and apply when making high-stakes safety decisions under pressure.
"Our question wasn’t whether the science is good," said co-author Patrick Merle, a professor and director of the School of Communication. "The science is excellent. The question is how we communicate that science so people who aren’t meteorologists understand the risk they’re facing."
Merle added that if the public finds official information credible but still struggles to understand it well enough to take protective action, the communication process has ultimately fallen short of its primary objective. The core goal, according to the researchers, must be to empower individuals with clear information that they can actively utilize to stay safe.
How to Better Understand Hurricane Risks
The study’s conclusions point directly to the vital importance of looking far beyond a single forecast image when preparing for an approaching hurricane. Although the traditional cone can provide valuable high-level insight into a storm’s expected path, it fundamentally cannot communicate every localized hazard that a particular community or neighborhood might experience as the system makes landfall and moves inland.
To overcome these limitations, the researchers strongly recommend utilizing hurricane forecast graphics in conjunction with localized weather predictions and detailed information regarding potential local impacts. Understanding the specific threats facing a particular region, alongside the concrete protective steps residents should consider undertaking, can provide a much more reliable and useful basis for personal decision-making during an emergency.
"Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story," Ray said. "Don’t rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. That gives you a fuller picture of what the storm could mean where you live and what to do next."
The research project received financial support through an internal Florida State University SEED grant. The study was also informed by collaborative discussions with the National Hurricane Center, which supplied the experimental forecast graphics that were rigorously evaluated by the academic team. Bradford Johnson, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography at Florida State University, also contributed to the study as a co-author.
